20140409, 11:19  #1 
Feb 2013
Charlotte, North Carolina
11111_{2} Posts 
pie chart: LL attempts
This is a pie chart of the table here
http://www.mersenne.org/report_top_500_ll/ of LL attempts over the past year. Ordered by rank of GhzDays. Only the first 20 of ~2800 are in the legend. So, assuming each exponent has a P=0.5 of being prime, it looks like there's still a 1/3 chance that the next discovery will go to one of the top three. Is my math right? I guess I'm also assuming that the output of each contributor is constant. 
20140409, 12:05  #2 
Romulan Interpreter
"name field"
Jun 2011
Thailand
9808_{10} Posts 

20140409, 13:40  #3 
Jun 2003
3^{2}×577 Posts 
Assuming that every exponent has the same chance of being prime (which isn't actually the case, but close enough), yes, there is a better than 1/3 chance that next prime will go to one of the top 3.
EDIT: Of course, ANONYMOUS is actually an amalgamation of all users who haven't registered an id. EDIT2: Hmmm... There are actually multiple ANONYMOUS there. Does that mean #3 is a single user? Last fiddled with by axn on 20140409 at 13:42 
20140409, 13:45  #4  
Account Deleted
"Tim Sorbera"
Aug 2006
San Antonio, TX USA
2×5×7×61 Posts 
Quote:
Didn't LaurV teach you anything? Every exponent does have the same chance of being prime: 1. 

20140409, 13:50  #5 
Jun 2003
3^{2}·577 Posts 

20140411, 20:06  #6 
"Bill Staffen"
Jan 2013
Pittsburgh, PA, USA
424_{10} Posts 
Your math isn't bad but the premise is flawed  Curtis Cooper already reserved the next 4 or 5 mersenne primes because he knows them in advance. :)

20140418, 00:00  #7 
Nov 2008
3×167 Posts 

20140418, 04:12  #8 
Romulan Interpreter
"name field"
Jun 2011
Thailand
2^{4}×613 Posts 
@Gordon: That is false, he knew all of them but he didn't want us to see that, so he intentionally left few behind...

20140418, 14:46  #9  
Nov 2003
2^{2}×5×373 Posts 
Quote:
Your last statement above is complete nonsense. May I suggest that you spend some time learning some number theory and statistics? You also need to learn how to write mathematics and to think about what you write before you write it. For GIMPS, every exponent that is checked is prime. 

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